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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and recent underperformers rising collectively. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still